Wednesday, December 10, 2014

My stocks portfolio - Nov 2014

My portfolio of local stocks was relatively flat in the month of November. It had underperformed the index by approximately 2.5%. The STI which is a financial over-weighted index was boosted by the rise of DBS, UOB and OCBC share prices over the past few weeks. Overall, my annualized return since 2010 had gone down to 9.19% per annum.

I did not make any changes to my local portfolio. It was a month of dividends bonanza for me because most of the REITS had just paid out their distributions. As for my US portfolio, I am still holding the same shares in G.A.S. The numbers of shares have varied though because I have been selling some shares when any of them rises too much while I have been adding back some shares when any of them falls by a fixed percentage. A trailing Market If Touch order is very useful to execute this strategy. What it does is, you can set an amount in % or dollar amount from the peak price of a stock that you wish to buy. The % or dollar amount set will always trail the peak price. So for my case, I will try to buy back if the stock has fallen by 5 to 8% from the peak.

For those of you who are looking to pick up any US stocks, I strongly recommend that you take a look into Gilead Sciences. The share price of this company had been consolidating in the past few weeks while market participants are waiting for the approval of a competitor drug. Gilead Sciences is one of the few big cap stocks that is still trading at a ridiculously cheap forward valuation. It has a good pipeline of drugs that are waiting for approval or still under clinical trials.
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec FY
2010 -1.75% 1.36% 2.98% 4.36% -7.12% 4.40% 4.49% -1.38% 6.76% 3.09% -1.61% 3.93% 20.38%
2011 -0.03% -4.77% 2.07% 1.29% -0.32% -2.39 -0.33% -8.34% -6.53% 7.52% -7.05% 0.52% -17.85%
2012 9.41% 5.52% 2.62% -0.22% -3.13% 2.55% 2.84% 1.99% 4.27% -0.34% 0.11% 2.75% 31.67%
2013 5.18% 2.33% 3.02% 1.95% -2.98% -3.45% 1.96% -5.22% 4.12% 3.19% -0.93% 0.73% 9.71%
2014 -2.44% 1.36% 2.58% 2.99% 3.52% 1.39% 0.25% -0.09% -1.18% -0.36% -0.24%
Annualized Return = 9.19%
Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD)
ARA CASH 37.21%
CAPITAMALL TRUST CASH 9.31%
CDL HOSPITALITY CASH 5.26%
CHINA MILK * CASH -100.00%
FIBRECHEM * CASH -100.00%
FAR EAST HOSPITALITY CASH -15.88%
FIRST REIT CASH 46.96%
FRASERS CENTREPOINT CASH 13.85%
FRASERS COMMERCIAL CASH 10.66%
PARKWAY LIFE CASH 24.05%
RAFFLES MEDICAL CASH 50.00%
RIVERSTONE CASH 67.77%
SILVERLAKE AXIS CASH 143.60%
STARHILL GLOBAL CASH -3.05%
CAPITAMALL TRUST CPF 2.86%
PARKWAY LIFE CPF 5.27%

Sunday, November 2, 2014

My stocks portfolio - Oct 2014

It has been a long journey since I started investing in Singapore stocks. I began buying stocks in the year 2007 at the onset of the last financial crisis. The market was peaking in that year. Then the financial crisis hit stock market around the world. By the time stock market bottomed, I had already lost nearly 60% of my portfolio value.

My perseverance and patience had paid off as I managed to recover all the previous losses through capital and dividend gains during the recovery period. I didn’t manage to calculate the time weighted annualized returns of my whole portfolio since 2007 but the cumulative returns including dividends stood at approximately +46%. However from the start of 2010, my annualized return was 9.41%.

The return was not that extraordinary simply because I had a diversified portfolio of local stocks. The peak number of stocks in my local portfolio was close to 50 at some point of time. Over the past few months, I had cut down the number of stocks by more than half. My new objective is clear. I must raise my cash level and at the same time to gain some exposure in the US market. It is a market with lots of great companies. So far, my Interactive Brokers account had accumulated gains of 84% till end of October. My current holdings in the US market are AAPL, GILD and SWKS.

Here is a summary of transactions for my local portfolio that I made in the month of October 2014.
Sold Keppel Corp, 235.86% gain (including dividends)
Sold Valuetronics, at 95.91% gain (including dividends)
Sold Starhub, at 90.18% gain (including dividends)
Sold SIA Engineering (CPF), at 29.34% gain (including dividends)
Sold Osim, at 12.64% loss (including dividends)
Bought Riverstone, new average price at $0.569

Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD) Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD)
ARA CASH 35.63% FRASERS COMMERCIAL CASH 6.90%
CAPITAMALL TRUST CASH 8.76% PARKWAY LIFE CASH 26.16%
CDL HOSPITALITY CASH 4.66% RAFFLES MEDICAL CASH 47.29%
CHINA MILK * CASH -100.00% RIVERSTONE CASH 69.52%
FIBRECHEM * CASH -100.00% SILVERLAKE AXIS CASH 155.83%
FAR EAST HOSPITALITY CASH -15.88% STARHILL GLOBAL CASH -2.45%
FIRST REIT CASH 45.77% CAPITAMALL TRUST CPF 2.34%
FRASERS CENTREPOINT CASH 16.85% PARKWAY LIFE CPF 7.07%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec FY
2010 -1.75% 1.36% 2.98% 4.36% -7.12% 4.40% 4.49% -1.38% 6.76% 3.09% -1.61% 3.93% 20.38%
2011 -0.03% -4.77% 2.07% 1.29% -0.32% -2.39 -0.33% -8.34% -6.53% 7.52% -7.05% 0.52% -17.85%
2012 9.41% 5.52% 2.62% -0.22% -3.13% 2.55% 2.84% 1.99% 4.27% -0.34% 0.11% 2.75% 31.67%
2013 5.18% 2.33% 3.02% 1.95% -2.98% -3.45% 1.96% -5.22% 4.12% 3.19% -0.93% 0.73% 9.71%
2014 -2.44% 1.36% 2.58% 2.99% 3.52% 1.39% 0.25% -0.09% -1.18% -0.36%
Annualized Return = 9.41%

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

My stocks portfolio - Sep 2014

Excluding dividends, my portfolio of local stocks was down by 1.81%. My portfolio had underperformed the overall market in the month of September 2014. However, the performance was adjusted lower to a negative of 1.18% after taking dividends into account. Ever since I started tracking its performance from the start of 2010, my holding period returns had translated to 9.67% in annualized return.

It was another month of further consolidations for my local portfolio. I boosted my cash level by selling off a couple of stocks. Currently, my local portfolio is made up of majority in reits and some growth stocks in sectors of small to middle capitalizations.

A lot of investors or traders are wary of the negative impact of rising interest rates on highly leveraged stocks like reits. Most of them have short term memory or have never looked at history before. The period of 2003 to 2007 was a period of rising interest rates but still there are a number of reits which thrived during that time. US economy is still fragile so it is likely that the rise in interest rate to be a gradual one. I expect a short term pullback in prices of reits but I don’t think the pullback is in the magnitude of 2013 fall. Nevertheless, I intend to increase my stake in reits further if the pullback is more than expected.

In the US market, I have opened a small position in LVS. This gaming stock is poised for a rebound after going down more than 20% from its peak price. Overall, LVS is still a cash generating company and valuations have become more appealing.

Here is a summary of transactions for my local stocks that I made in the month of September 2014.
Sold Roxy Pacific, at 96.79% gain (including dividends)
Sold Kingsmen Creatives, at 26.62% gain (including dividends)
Sold SATS, at 24.08% gain (including dividends)
Sold STE, at 13.2% gain (including dividends)
Sold MGCCT, 2.53% gain (including dividends)
Sold MTQ, at 2.51% gain (including dividends)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec FY
2010 -1.75% 1.36% 2.98% 4.36% -7.12% 4.40% 4.49% -1.38% 6.76% 3.09% -1.61% 3.93% 20.38%
2011 -0.03% -4.77% 2.07% 1.29% -0.32% -2.39 -0.33% -8.34% -6.53% 7.52% -7.05% 0.52% -17.85%
2012 9.41% 5.52% 2.62% -0.22% -3.13% 2.55% 2.84% 1.99% 4.27% -0.34% 0.11% 2.75% 31.67%
2013 5.18% 2.33% 3.02% 1.95% -2.98% -3.45% 1.96% -5.22% 4.12% 3.19% -0.93% 0.73% 9.71%
2014 -2.44% 1.36% 2.58% 2.99% 3.52% 1.39% 0.25% -0.09% -1.18%
Annualised Return = 9.67%
Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD) Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD)
ARA CASH 38.80% PARKWAY LIFE CASH 21.94%
CAPITAMALL TRUST CASH 5.45% RAFFLES MEDICAL CASH 49.23%
CDL HOSPITALITY CASH 1.32% RIVERSTONE CASH 101.28%
CHINA MILK * CASH -100.00% SILVERLAKE AXIS CASH 143.60%
FIBRECHEM * CASH -100.00% STARHILL GLOBAL CASH -5.44%
FAR EAST HOSPITALITY CASH -17.40% STARHUB CASH 58.77%
FIRST REIT CASH 45.77% VALUETRONICS CASH 55.70%
FRASERS CENTREPOINT CASH 13.25% SIA ENGG CPF -2.91%
FRASERS COMMERCIAL CASH 1.63% CAPITAMALL TRUST CPF -0.77%
KEPPELCORP CASH 198.55% PARKWAY LIFE CPF 3.48%
OSIM CASH 16.07%

Sunday, August 31, 2014

My stocks portfolio - Aug 2014

Inclusive of dividends, my portfolio of local stocks remained unchanged whilst STI was down by 1.4% at the end of August 2014. Overall, my holding period returns had translated to 10.13% in annualised return since start of 2010.

I continue to liquidate some of my local stocks and especially the bigger capitalization stocks to boost my cash level further. After a round up of 2nd quarter earnings announcements, most of our local blue chip stocks had reported lower or flattish earnings. I found that the earnings outlook from the ST index stocks doesn’t look favorable in the mid-term and couple with the overdue Bull Run in the US market; I expect another financial crisis to come soon.

In the meantime, I am gradually increasing my exposure into the US market. I am targeting US stocks that have strong earnings momentum but of course they must be trading at cheaper valuations than the overall market. Currently, I am holding shares of Apple and Gilead Sciences. After experimenting myself with a couple of short term trades, I found that I am more comfortable with just buying the stocks and holding them for longer periods. I can spend less time monitoring the US market and the returns can be more rewarding in the longer term.

Here is a summary of the transactions that I made in the month of August 2014.
Sold Teckwah, at 58.96% gain (including dividends)
Sold SIA Engineering (Cash), at 44.82% gain (including dividends)
Sold partial SATS, at 0.84% gain (excluding dividends)
Sold partial STE, at 0.68% loss (excluding dividends)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec FY
2010 -1.75% 1.36% 2.98% 4.36% -7.12% 4.40% 4.49% -1.38% 6.76% 3.09% -1.61% 3.93% 20.38%
2011 -0.03% -4.77% 2.07% 1.29% -0.32% -2.39 -0.33% -8.34% -6.53% 7.52% -7.05% 0.52% -17.85%
2012 9.41% 5.52% 2.62% -0.22% -3.13% 2.55% 2.84% 1.99% 4.27% -0.34% 0.11% 2.75% 31.67%
2013 5.18% 2.33% 3.02% 1.95% -2.98% -3.45% 1.96% -5.22% 4.12% 3.19% -0.93% 0.73% 9.71%
2014 -2.44% 1.36% 2.58% 2.99% 3.52% 1.39% 0.25% -0.09%
Annualised Return = 10.13%
Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD) Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD)
ARA CASH 41.18% PARKWAY LIFE CASH 24.05%
CAPITAMALL TRUST CASH 10.42% RAFFLES MEDICAL CASH 54.27%
CDL HOSPITALITY CASH 0.11% RIVERSTONE CASH 103.43%
CHINA MILK * CASH -100.00% ROXY PACIFIC CASH 73.34%
FIBRECHEM * CASH -100.00% SATS CASH 2.10%
FAR EAST HOSPITALITY CASH -13.85% SILVERLAKE AXIS CASH 126.67%
FIRST REIT CASH 44.00% STARHILL GLOBAL CASH -2.45%
FRASERS CENTREPOINT CASH 20.15% STARHUB CASH 59.92%
FRASERS COMMERCIAL CASH 5.39% ST ENGINEERING CASH -3.85%
KEPPELCORP CASH 209.92% VALUETRONICS CASH 73.22%
KINGSMEN CREATIVES CASH 17.34% SIA ENGG CPF -3.54%
MAPPLETREE GCC CASH 1.39% CAPITAMALL TRUST CPF 3.90%
MTQ CASH 0.42% PARKWAY LIFE CPF 5.27%
OSIM CASH 18.72%

Sunday, August 3, 2014

My stocks portfolio - Jul 2014

Despite STI going up by as much as 3.64%, my portfolio of local stocks was relatively flat by the end of July 2014. Overall, my holding period returns had translated to 10.35% pa in annualised return since the beginning of 2010. This annualised return includes dividends collected so far.

My portfolio had underperformed because two of my aviation related stocks reported declining profits in the financial report of 2nd quarter 2014. Rising operating costs, lower air passenger travels and negative sentiments from the MH17 incident had also exacerbated the fall in the share prices of SATS and SIA Engineering. I continue to raise my cash levels by reducing some of my stock holdings in rotation. Overall, I am still about 85% to 90% invested in the stock market.

Because of the structural shift in the economic policy of the Singapore government to reduce the reliant of foreign workers, many companies here are complaining of higher operating costs. Slower economic growth is also expected of this country. As such, I am starting to overweigh overseas stocks by looking at opportunities outside of Singapore.

Here is a summary of the transactions that I made in the month of July 2014.
Sold partial ARA, at 37.66% gain (excluding dividends)
Sold partial FCT, at 16.26% gain (excluding dividends)
Sold partial Kingsmen, at 15.78% gain (excluding dividends)
Sold partial MTQ, at 12.11% gain (excluding dividends)

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec FY
2010 -1.75% 1.36% 2.98% 4.36% -7.12% 4.40% 4.49% -1.38% 6.76% 3.09% -1.61% 3.93% 20.38%
2011 -0.03% -4.77% 2.07% 1.29% -0.32% -2.39 -0.33% -8.34% -6.53% 7.52% -7.05% 0.52% -17.85%
2012 9.41% 5.52% 2.62% -0.22% -3.13% 2.55% 2.84% 1.99% 4.27% -0.34% 0.11% 2.75% 31.67%
2013 5.18% 2.33% 3.02% 1.95% -2.98% -3.45% 1.96% -5.22% 4.12% 3.19% -0.93% 0.73% 9.71%
2014 -2.44% 1.36% 2.58% 2.99% 3.52% 1.39% 0.25%
Annualised Return = 10.35%
Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD) Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD)
ARA CASH 36.42% RAFFLES MEDICAL CASH 51.55%
CAPITAMALL TRUST CASH 8.76% RIVERSTONE CASH 101.28%
CDL HOSPITALITY CASH 6.18% ROXY PACIFIC CASH 73.34%
CHINA MILK * CASH -100.00% SATS CASH 1.43%
FIBRECHEM * CASH -100.00% SIA ENGG CASH 26.38%
FAR EAST HOSPITALITY CASH -11.31% SILVERLAKE AXIS CASH 114.44%
FIRST REIT CASH 44.59% STARHILL GLOBAL CASH -1.25%
FRASERS CENTREPOINT CASH 16.55% STARHUB CASH 64.16%
FRASERS COMMERCIAL CASH 5.77% ST ENGINEERING CASH -0.17%
KEPPELCORP CASH 211.63% TECK WAH CASH 42.53%
KINGSMEN CREATIVES CASH 17.97% VALUETRONICS CASH 96.57%
MAPPLETREE GCC CASH -1.29% CAPITAMALL TRUST CPF 2.34%
MTQ CASH 5.81% PARKWAY LIFE CPF 7.07%
OSIM CASH 26.67% SIA ENGG CPF -2.06%
PARKWAY LIFE CASH 26.16%

Thursday, July 3, 2014

My stocks portfolio - Jun 2014

My portfolio of local stocks was up 0.78% on a price basis but it was up 1.39% after taking dividends into account at the end of June 2014. Overall, my holding period returns translate to 10.48% pa since beginning of 2010.

STI is currently trading at a PE ratio of 13.77 which is quite low as compared to the valuation in the US market. I can that say that the downside risk of STI is low unless there is a new financial crisis that emerges. Even though STI was slightly down last month, a number of the smaller cap stocks continue to move higher. It is no surprise as some of the smaller cap stocks have reported good financial results compared to the bigger cap stocks.

Raffles Medical, Silverlake and Riverstone were the biggest movers in my last month portfolio. I took partial profits in Silverlake and Valuetronics to lock in some gains so as to increase my cash level. I will continue to move my stocks into cash if any of the smaller cap stocks continue to outperform. I am interested to watch Valuetronics movements in the next few weeks as a number of brokerage houses have raised the target prices of this manufacturing company. Currently, the stock is trading near its all-time high and it is going to go XD in the next few weeks.

Here is a summary of the transactions made in the month of June 2014.
Sold partial Silverlake Axis, at 103.13% gain (excluding dividends)
Sold partial Valuetronics, at 57.19% gain (excluding dividends)

I did mention that I have started trading in the US market in the beginning of the year. That trading portfolio weighs about 10% of my overall stocks portfolio. It was a good experience with Interactive Brokers so far as the platform provides me with many useful order types that I have never tried before with my local brokerage accounts. As a short term trader, some of the order types are really necessary as part of my risk management plan. My strategy in the US market is basically to buy stocks with strong earnings or technical momentum. After trading for a period of nearly 6 months, my US stocks portfolio has gained nearly 18% outperforming all of my benchmarks. I attach below a cumulative performance of my US portfolio compared to its benchmarks.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec FY
2010 -1.75% 1.36% 2.98% 4.36% -7.12% 4.40% 4.49% -1.38% 6.76% 3.09% -1.61% 3.93% 20.38%
2011 -0.03% -4.77% 2.07% 1.29% -0.32% -2.39 -0.33% -8.34% -6.53% 7.52% -7.05% 0.52% -17.85%
2012 9.41% 5.52% 2.62% -0.22% -3.13% 2.55% 2.84% 1.99% 4.27% -0.34% 0.11% 2.75% 31.67%
2013 5.18% 2.33% 3.02% 1.95% -2.98% -3.45% 1.96% -5.22% 4.12% 3.19% -0.94% 0.73% 9.69%
2014 -2.44% 1.36% 2.58% 2.99% 3.52% 1.39%
Annualised Return = 10.48%
Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD) Stock Mode Unrealised P/L (SGD)
ARA CASH 41.18% RAFFLES MEDICAL CASH 57.76%
CAPITAMALL TRUST CASH 9.04% RIVERSTONE CASH 99.14%
CDL HOSPITALITY CASH 6.78% ROXY PACIFIC CASH 77.90%
CHINA MILK * CASH -100.00% SATS CASH 5.81%
FIBRECHEM * CASH -100.00% SIA ENGG CASH 37.25%
FAR EAST HOSPITALITY CASH -11.82% SILVERLAKE AXIS CASH 125.73%
FIRST REIT CASH 40.44% STARHILL GLOBAL CASH -1.25%
FRASERS CENTREPOINT CASH 13.85% STARHUB CASH 60.69%
FRASERS COMMERCIAL CASH 2.00% ST ENGINEERING CASH -0.17%
KEPPELCORP CASH 206.80% TECK WAH CASH 39.17%
KINGSMEN CREATIVES CASH 14.18% VALUETRONICS CASH 55.70%
MAPPLETREE GCC CASH -7.19% CAPITAMALL TRUST CPF 2.60%
MTQ CASH 17.94% PARKWAY LIFE CPF 5.72%
OSIM CASH 18.72% SIA ENGG CPF 6.36%
PARKWAY LIFE CASH 24.58%